Why Behavioural Marketing Outperforms Traditional Ads

In this conversation Roger Hurni talks about how behavioural marketing beats ads, every single time.

The $19 Billion Question Nobody Asked

Roger Hurni wasn’t supposed to be in the room when DoubleTree pitched the cookie idea. He was 19, fresh-faced, and not yet invited to sit with CEOs. But when account executive Joe Colombia returned from that meeting, something fundamental had shifted.

“The conversation stemmed not necessarily around the cookies, but what they meant,” Roger recalls. “The hotel became your home away from home. It wasn’t just another bed for the night.”

That insight—that simple reframe—helped transform DoubleTree from an independent hotel chain into one of Hilton’s fastest-growing properties. Since 2007, it’s been expanding globally, including multiple locations across India.

But here’s what most marketers miss: It was never about the cookie.

The Sensory Memory Trap (And Why Your Brain Falls For It)

Business travelers in the 90s were stuck between luxury hotels they couldn’t afford and budget motels they didn’t want. DoubleTree recognized a gap. But instead of competing on price or amenities, they engineered an emotion.

“If you’re away from home and on the road so much, you miss home,” Roger explains. “The idea behind the cookie wasn’t about the cookie. It was to create a feeling of home.”

The genius? Sensory marketing that creates subconscious pull.

One DoubleTree location took it further. They installed a vent with a blower behind the lobby wall. Whenever they baked chocolate chip cookies, they’d blow the smell into the lobby.

The result? “That hotel sold more cookies than any other hotel in the entire chain. They achieved this simply by using the marketing technique of having the lobby smell like freshly baked chocolate chip cookies.”

Key takeaway: You’re not selling products. You’re selling the feeling people get when they use them.

The Popcorn Insight That Changed Movie Theater Economics

Roger began working with a movie theater chain. The executives told him something shocking: “We’re not in the movie business. We’re in the popcorn and soda business.”

Movie theaters make their real money on concessions. Everything else is just getting people in the door.

So Roger and his team went to see 30 movies. But they didn’t watch the films. They watched people.

What they discovered:

• People ate more popcorn when plots were simple and action-packed
• Serious dramas killed popcorn consumption
• Romcoms were hit-or-miss (couples on first dates don’t want to shove popcorn in their faces)
• Action films created the perfect mindless-eating environment

“We started to make correlations. People ate more popcorn when the plot was simple. It would just unfold in front of you. That’s why action films did so well.”

The solution wasn’t an ad campaign. It was movie mix optimization. By understanding behavior, they could schedule films to maximize concession sales.

Roger’s entire career philosophy crystallized here: “Throughout my whole career, people asked me what I did. I replied, ‘Well, I changed the behavior of your customers.’”

B=MAP: The Three-Letter Formula That Explains Every Human Decision

Roger credits BJ Fogg’s behavioral model as his turning point. It’s brutally simple:

B = MAP

• B = Behavior
• M = Motivation
• A = Ability
• P = Prompt

“Every single human behavior from brushing your teeth to buying a car comprises of three things. First is motivation. You have to have sufficient motivation to perform that behavior. The second is that the person has to have the ability to perform the behavior. And they have to be prompted at the right moment.”

Here’s the kicker: You can’t create motivation. You can only find people who already have it.

“Not everybody is your audience,” Roger insists. “If you don’t care about your teeth, you’re not going to brush them. There’s customers who do not have the motivation, and they will never be your customer. So stop focusing on that.”

This is where most marketing fails. Brands waste millions trying to convince the unmotivated instead of making it easier for motivated people to act.

The Five Ability Killers (And Why Your Car Wash Campaign Failed)

A national car wash brand came to Roger with a problem. They’d geofenced competitor locations to serve ads when people pulled in: “Come to our wash instead! Free polish!”

It bombed.

“You’re trying to stop someone from performing a behavior. They are highly motivated to perform it and have a very limited time frame to do it,” Roger explained. “Nobody will ever do it.”

The culprit? The ability chain. Five things that prevent behavior:

1. Routine (if it’s not habitual, make it ridiculously easy)
2. Mental effort (too complicated? They’ll quit)
3. Physical effort (can’t lift 100 pounds? Won’t happen)
4. Money (too expensive = dead end)
5. Time (no time = no behavior)

The car wash had motivation, low mental effort, low physical effort, and they were offering deals (money solved). But time? “People get their car washed a certain way. That’s just the reality.”

The pivot: Stop chasing new customers. Focus on getting existing customers to visit twice, then three times, then four times. Around visit four or five, they’d see the value of a subscription.

“It’s called behavior sequencing. You create a sequence of behaviors similar to a choose your own adventure. Within a few choices, it’s clear that this is the best thing to do.”

The company tripled in size in four years and sold to a private equity firm.

The Four Seasons Beijing Secret: When Geofencing Feels Like Magic

Roger and his wife booked a deal at Four Seasons Beijing. He’d never been to China. Didn’t speak Chinese. Had no status with the brand.

The manager greeted them by name when they arrived. He handed his wife a dozen roses. He said they were already checked in. Their room had swan towels and rose petals.

“How did you create this experience?” Roger asked.

“You downloaded our app and we had geofenced the airport. We knew when you broke that geofence. Considering the time of day in traffic, we estimated you would be at the hotel in 35 minutes.”

When they were a mile out, another alert. When they hit the parking lot, the team walked outside to greet them.

“I didn’t get any of those messages. I just got the experience.”

Roger’s lesson: “They should lead with the experience. Allow the technology to help them execute the experience. They’ll be far better off than just relying on technology to start.”

Technology should be invisible. It should serve the experience, not replace it.

Why AI Will Never Replace Human Insight (And Why You Need Both)

Roger runs an AI company focused on personalization. But he’s crystal clear about AI’s limits.

AI can take all those sources. It can extrapolate key pieces to come up with a behavioral profile for Roger Hurni. But the human insight is perhaps what I bought is part of a larger behavior.

Example: You buy a shelving unit on Amazon. AI recommends an ottoman because other buyers purchased it.

“No, no, no. Maybe I’m decorating my room and what I need is a painting, something that has nothing related to a shelf.”

Human insight understands context. AI sees patterns.

An AI can get you halfway there. However, I still think it’s going to take a lot of human insight. Understanding human behavior is also necessary to draw conclusions that the AI might miss.

The future? “Me and AI together are going to compete against everybody else for that same job. But it takes both of us.”

The Slot Machine Effect: Why Predictable Rewards Kill Loyalty

Starbucks and punch cards taught us rewards work. But they also revealed a fatal flaw.

“The very first time that happens, that’s awesome. But now you’re waiting for the next 10th cup. That anticipation becomes difficult and becomes expected. The second and third time, it doesn’t feel special anymore.”

Roger calls it the slot machine effect: “Randomize the situation so that you can receive an unexpected gift. You might also experience something unexpected at an unexpected time.” That randomization keeps you interested.

Maybe the free coffee comes on the 6th visit. Maybe the 11th. Maybe the 8th. You don’t know, so you keep coming back.

“Does everybody want to win $10,000? Yes, of course they do. But they’re really happy when they win 50 bucks. You don’t know when that win is going to come or in what amount. But every time it happens, no matter what the amount, it makes you feel really special.”

When rewards become predictable, they stop being rewards. They become expectations.

The Truth Nobody Wants to Hear

“Not everybody is your audience. But if you can find the right audience, it can change a business in profound ways. Their needs must line up with your product or service. Have that conversation and show them the meaning behind the product or service. Explain why it’s important in their lives.”

You don’t need to sell to everyone. You need the right conversations with the right people.

You must speak with the right people. Having the right conversations is crucial. This will help you see sales and gain customers for life.

Stop trying to convince where you cannot. Stop adding features nobody asked for. Stop creating friction when you should be removing it.

Start asking the only question that matters: “How do I make it easier for the customer to decide?”

That’s behavioural marketing. That’s how you win.